COVID-19 survivors and their connections could decide the future of the country and your brand.
In a recent study conducted by Huge, we found that Americans’ preferred candidate in the 2020 election could be determined equally by political ideology or party affiliation as by their personal experience with the health risks of COVID-19.
In a year of seemingly non-stop research about the impacts COVID-19 has had on our lives, there’s one topic everyone is talking about right now: the US presidential election. This election has often been described as the most important of our lifetimes, and the pandemic has changed the game in some big ways. While most of the discussion around COVID-19 and the election has focused on the safety of in-person voting and the increase in mail-in voting, public sentiment surrounding the pandemic may have even larger unanticipated impacts on the election and on brands.
In a recent study conducted by Huge, we found that Americans’ preferred candidate in the 2020 election could be determined equally by political ideology or party affiliation as by their personal experience with the health risks of COVID-19. The sharp partisan divisions on public health and safety protocols that existed earlier in the outbreak have begun to blur as the virus has spread from blue to red states. The nearly eight million COVID-19 cases in the US will likely influence more than the outcome of this year’s presidential election — it could also determine which brands come out ahead.
Americans who personally know someone impacted by the health risks of the pandemic are significantly more likely to vote for Joe Biden, regardless of their party affiliation.
According to our survey, 59% of Americans have either contracted COVID-19 themselves or personally know someone who has. Among this group of voters with a personal connection to the virus, 72% intend to vote for Joe Biden and 28% for Donald Trump. While support for Donald Trump was generally quite low in our study, support for the president was significantly higher among people who don’t know anyone with COVID-19 (36% of these voters support Trump). These differences are even more pronounced when we look at people who plan to vote for Joe Biden: only 3% of Biden voters who don’t know anyone with COVID-19 identify as Republican, whereas 22% of Biden voters who do know someone with COVID-19 identify as Republican. In other words, Americans who personally know someone impacted by the health risks of the pandemic are significantly more likely to vote for Joe Biden, regardless of their party affiliation.
This may have a larger than anticipated impact on the election as the pandemic continues to ravage battleground states. Wisconsin, one of the 3 states that helped Donald Trump secure the 2016 election, is now reporting 4,205 new cases in a single day. Conservatives in these states who were once able to accept the President’s laid-back approach to the pandemic may be finding it harder to do so as the realities of the virus creep closer to home. As a result, those voters who originally only felt the economic pressures of quarantine and social-distancing without fully appreciating the health risks that necessitated those closures may now be shifting their priorities from the economy to public health concerns.
For months, polling has shown that public support of mask mandates and stricter public safety measures has been growing, which is one reason people who have felt the health impacts of the virus are leaning more toward the presidential candidate who supports these policies. But policy decisions on COVID-19 are likely not the only factor influencing voters in this election. Battling this deadly virus or watching a loved one do so is a deeply emotional and personal experience. With more Americans experiencing this heartache every day, and as the president continues to dismiss the gravity of the pandemic even through his own recent COVID-19 diagnosis, our data indicates that many Americans plan to vote with their hearts in this election, rather than their party. With over 220,000 deaths and more than 50% of Americans having experienced the personal agony of a COVID-19 diagnosis in their own life, President Trump’s continued denial of the health risks of the virus may be his downfall.
The impacts of this phenomenon may extend far beyond the 2020 presidential election as we see the same values influencing how we vote at the ballot box, and with our dollars. As consumers increasingly turn to face the gravity of the health risks of COVID-19, brands with safety policies more closely aligned to CDC guidelines may begin to see an increase in traffic from consumers who don’t feel safe frequenting businesses with more relaxed safety policies.
In research conducted this spring, we found that consumers were deciding where to shop or dine based on which businesses had implemented increased safety measures or were offering paid sick leave to their employees. When studying consumer interactions in retail environments, we found that these new procedures made most customers feel significantly more comfortable, and even grateful, to brands that made an effort to keep them safe. One participant expressed this sentiment after a trip to Target, stating “Upon entering Target there is a large sign that states EVERYONE must wear face masks. I find that really positive as they want to maintain a safe environment.”
Earlier this year, liberals were largely in favor of these extra safety measures while many conservatives fervently protested them. Although brands may have previously hedged their bets about how hard to lean into COVID-19 safety measures based on whether their business and customers skewed more to the right or left, our latest research and a recent Pew poll suggest that the tide has turned towards the guidance of health experts with an increasing number of voters across all political parties preferring Joe Biden’s policies on the pandemic.
Whatever the outcome of the presidential election, there’s no doubt that the personal health impacts of COVID-19 are beginning to blur the clear partisan divide on the pandemic that once existed. Brands can’t simply assume that their conservative customers will care less about safety than liberals, and they instead need to understand the personal impacts of the virus on their individual customers and the communities they serve.
This piece was researched and written by Nicole Riesenberger, Research Lead at Huge, with data analysis support from Trace Johnson who works in Product Strategy at Huge.
The world is changing fast. It’s our job to not only understand that reality, but to act. What Matters Now is an ongoing series that explores the intersection of adaptation and resilience to identify new ways of thinking and doing.
